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Diagnosing Slow Plans at Scale

Understand why a query fast on small tables degrades at scale by reading execution plan cardinality estimates.

A query runs fast in dev (10K rows) but crawls in production (50M rows). The execution plan shows a Nested Loops join where the optimizer estimated 12 rows on the driving side but the actual row count is 480,000. What is the most likely root cause and correct first fix?